RIM and BlackBerry 10: “This is a Game of Odds”

Yesterday, RIM was unveiling another trailer for what it hopes will be the operating system that saves its future from its past. It’s called BlackBerry 10. Wait, wait… it’s also a touch screen.

But, as the crows woke up on Tuesday, RIM continued its ascent to the top of technology’s 15 minutes of jargon-based fame.

“RIM’s rebound in the smartphone market has been given a small chance of success against Apple and Android devices after another look at expectations for its new operating system,” wrote the Canadian Press on Monday (published here by the Huffington Post Canada).

“Some analysts have increased their share target prices and removed sell orders, helped by a firm launch date of Jan. 30 for the BlackBerry 10 operating system and the belief that hardcore customers will upgrade to the new smartphones.”

Of course, it’s all a guess. It’s presumptive. It’s assuming that the BlackBerry 10 will be better — or, at least, more effective — than BlackBerry 1-to-9. It’s all based on the chance that people still even want to pay for a phone made by RIM. Anyone who’s owned one of the little buggers until recently knows just how painful it was to watch everyone else link all their Apple devices in the iCloud or tie each of their Android devices to Google while they had to sit and wait out the remaining three years of their contract on a BlackBerry.

Good for business, yes, but not the device of the future. Has that changed?

“This is a game of odds,” said Troy Crandall, an analyst who upped his price for the stock from $7 to $10 on Monday. “That’s why it’s very difficult to figure out what RIM’s going to be worth because we can’t say with any kind of confidence whether this is going to be successful, but history tells us it probably won’t.”

And, there’s the real kicker.

Will RIM improve its market share with the BlackBerry 10? Probably. But, with a market share of less than 10 per cent, that should be easy. And, sure, the stock price may rise from $7 to $10, but that still costs less than two Starbucks Christmas lattes.

The fact remains: RIM has been so decimated since 2010 that, at this point, any minor improvement can be technically sold to stockholders as a revolution.