Portugal Will Beat Spain in the Semi-Finals, and Here’s Why…

“Spain has been in total control at Euro 2012.”

Well, maybe. That was the first and only real line on ESPN’s front page at 8:29 p.m. PST, Tuesday, June 27. And then, just because, a linked-to article reads, “Can anyone stop Ronaldo?”

Spain has not been in total control. They just didn’t have to play Germany, Holland, and Denmark in their first three games. And, when they played Italy, they looked a little unhinged. Yes, they pass the ball a lot, and they can field any kind of roster with any kind of front one, or two, or none. Fernando Torres or no Fernando Torres, Spain can win any game.

But, really, that’s the hard part about being the team everyone picks to win. You have to win. And, when every team in the tournament is devising plans to beat you and you alone, it gets pretty hard.

Portugal is that team. They got their beaks wet with Germany, and they flexed their muscle against the Danes, Dutch, and Czechs. Are they better than Spain? No way. But, they hate Spain. Portugal hates Spain much more than Spain hates Portugal, and there’s nothing the West Iberians would like to see more than Spanish flags at half mast.

They don’t even have to win. They just have to beat Spain. Ronaldo won’t be as good as he’s supposed to be tomorrow, because Spain will render him impotent. But, June 28 may finally be the day that David Villa’s absence is exploited.

Prediction: Portugal 2, Spain 1.